Evaluating Class 5A Basketball Scenarios

Evaluating Class 5A Basketball Scenarios

As we enter the final stages of district play in Class 5A basketball, a lot of scenarios are still left, ready to be potentially played out as we enter Friday and Saturday’s actions. Here’s a look at what you can expect in both boys and girls Class 5A districts.

Boys 5A District 1 Standings:

  1. Volcano Vista (20-4, 6-2 in District)

T2. Rio Rancho (19-7, 5-3 in District)

T2. Atrisco Heritage (18-6, 5-3 in District)

  1. Cleveland (21-5, 4-4 in District)
  2. Cibola (1-23, 0-8 in District)

    STANDINGS ARE LOCKED AND OFFICIAL FOR THIS DISTRICT!

 

Outlook on Final Standings:

In arguably the toughest district in Class 5A boys basketball this year, the end result sees Volcano Vista securing the District 1 championship, taking the one seed in the district tournament that is coming up soon. Since Rio Rancho and Atrisco Heritage tied for second place in district, the tiebreaker is determined by head-to-head record, which favors Rio Rancho. The Rams will get the two seed in the district tournament, followed by #3 for Atrisco Heritage, #4 for Cleveland, and #5 for Cibola.

 

Boys 5A District 2 Standings:

T1. Eldorado (17-5, 6-1 in District)

T1. La Cueva (14-9, 6-1 in District)

  1. Piedra Vista (9-16, 3-4 in District)
  2. West Mesa (7-15, 1-5 in District)
  3. Farmington (12-13, 1-6 in District)

 

Scenarios for District 2:

Before entering the scenarios, West Mesa, Farmington, and Piedra Vista are all eliminated from contention of the title due to their district records

Entering Friday’s action, the bitter rivals in La Cueva and Eldorado are tied for the top spot in District 2, but due to all the rescheduling that happened because of the snow day on Tuesday, there will be one game played on Friday, along with two games on Saturday. The game on Friday will see Eldorado and West Mesa square off, while rivals Farmington and Piedra Vista, and La Cueva and West Mesa will face off on Saturday. Here’s what can come about from the results of each game.

 

Eldorado: Win / La Cueva: Win

The two will stay tied for first place, and will play a playoff game to determine a district tournament one-seed

Eldorado: Win / La Cueva: Loss

Eldorado will become the outright District 2 champion

Eldorado: Loss / La Cueva: Win

La Cueva will become the outright District 2 champion

Eldorado: Loss / La Cueva: Loss

The two will still be tied for first, and will play that same playoff game to determine the district tournament one-seed

 

Also, in the event that West Mesa wins both of their games and Piedra Vista loses their contest with Farmington, the two will be tied for third place, favoring Piedra Vista in head-to-head competition.

Boys 5A District 3 Standings:

  1. Las Cruces (25-0, 11-0 in District)
  2. Gadsden (16-7, 8-3 in District)
  3. Onate (16-10, 7-5 in District)

T4. Centennial (10-15, 5-6 in District)

T4. Mayfield (11-14, 5-6 in District)

  1. Deming (8-16, 2-9 in District)
  2. Alamogordo (4-21, 1-10 in District)

 

Scenarios for District 3:

It’s evident that William Benjamin and his Las Cruces crew will secure the outright District 3 championship no matter if they win or lose on Friday, but there are still some things to sort out in terms of placing lower than first place. The final three games of the year for District 3 are between Las Cruces and Mayfield, Centennial and Gadsden, and Alamogordo and Deming. Since both Deming and Alamogordo are far in wins in district, there are no severe impacts from their game, other than the determination of their final standings. Here are the scenarios that could come from the other two games to take place.

 

Las Cruces: Win / Gadsden: Win

Centennial and Mayfield will remain tied for fourth place, which will be broken to Centennial because of their head-to-head record

Las Cruces: Win / Gadsden: Loss

Centennial will take outright fourth place in the district

Las Cruces: Loss / Gadsden: Win

Mayfield will take outright fourth place in the district

Las Cruces: Loss / Gadsden: Loss

Centennial and Mayfield remain tied, which is once again broken to Centennial based on head-to-head record

 

Boys 5A District 4 Standings:

  1. Hobbs (19-6, 4-1 in District)
  2. Clovis (17-8, 3-2 in District)
  3. Roswell (17-8, 2-3 in District)
  4. Carlsbad (14-11, 1-4 in District)

 

Scenarios in District 4:

With a slim district, the Hobbs Eagles will look to close things out to secure District 4, but they first must get past their final game of the regular season, as they take on Carlsbad, while Clovis and Roswell square off. Here are the scenarios that could come around from these games.

 

Hobbs: Win / Clovis: Win

All standings will remain the same and Hobbs will secure the District championship.

Hobbs: Win / Clovis: Loss

Clovis and Roswell will tie for second place in the district, and the tiebreaker will depend on the point differential between the two teams.

Hobbs: Loss / Clovis: Win

Hobbs and Clovis will tie for first place in district, and will have to play a playoff game to determine a district tournament one-seed, while Roswell and Carlsbad will tie for third place in district, with Roswell being favored in the head-to-head.

Hobbs: Loss / Clovis: Loss

Hobbs will still win the outright district championship, while Clovis and Roswell will tie for the second place, where the tiebreaker would once again be determined by point differential

 

Boys 5A District 5 Standings:

  1. Manzano (14-9, 6-3 in District) 6-4

T2. Santa Fe (18-7, 5-4 in District) 5-5

T2. Albuquerque High (8-15, 5-4 in District) 5-5

T4. Capital (17-8, 4-5 in District) 5-5

T4. Rio Grande (8-15, 4-5 in District)  5-5

  1. Sandia (9-14, 3-6 in District) 4-6

 

Scenarios for District 5:

With two ties already existing in District 5, the ties will look to be broken, while Manzano looks to maintain the top spot in District 5. Starting on Friday, Sandia will face off with Albuquerque High, Manzano and Capital will square off, capped off with Santa Fe taking on Rio Grande. Here are all the scenarios that could come about from these matchups.

 

Manzano: Win / Santa Fe: Win / Albuquerque High: Win

Manzano wins the District 5 title outright. Santa Fe and Albuquerque High will remain tied, and Capital and Rio Grande will also remain tied. Santa Fe and Capital win their respective tiebreakers.

Manzano: Win / Santa Fe: Win / Albuquerque High: Loss

Capital, Rio Grande and Sandia will be involved in a three-way tie for fourth place, with Capital winning the tiebreaker based on head to head

Manzano: Win / Santa Fe: Loss / Albuquerque High: Win

Albuquerque High will jump to second place, while Santa Fe and Rio Grande will tie for third place. Capital will drop to fifth place. The tiebreaker will be determined by the point differential.

Manzano: Win / Santa Fe: Loss / Albuquerque High: Loss

Santa Fe, Albuquerque High and Rio Grande will enter a three-way tie for second place in district, while Capital and Sandia will tie for fifth place. The three-way tiebreaker can’t be determined until Santa Fe and Rio Grande play each other, while Capital wins the tiebreaker with Sandia.

Manzano: Loss / Santa Fe: Win / Albuquerque High: Win

Manzano will enter a three-way tie for first place with Santa Fe and Albuquerque High, but Manzano will win the tiebreaker based on head-to-head record.

Manzano: Loss / Santa Fe: Win / Albuquerque High: Loss

There would be two-way ties for first, third, and fifth place. Manzano and Santa Fe would play a playoff game to determine a district tournament one-seed, Albuquerque High would win the tiebreaker over Capital, while Rio Grande wins the tiebreaker over Sandia

Manzano: Loss / Santa Fe: Loss / Albuquerque High: Win

Manzano and Albuquerque High will play a playoff game, while Santa Fe, Capital and Rio Grande will lock in a three way tie for third place.

Manzano: Loss / Santa Fe: Loss / Albuquerque High: Loss

There will be a four-way tie for second place between Santa Fe, Albuquerque High, Capital and Rio Grande.

Now here is how things look with the girls’ districts.

 

Girls 5A District 1 Standings:

T1. Volcano Vista (18-5, 6-1 in District)

T1. Rio Rancho (16-9, 6-1 in District)

  1. Cleveland (17-8, 4-3 in District)
  2. Atrisco Heritage (6-17, 2-5 in District)
  3. Cibola (4-20, 0-8 in District)

 

Scenarios for District 1:

Since Volcano Vista and Rio Rancho are tied in District record thanks to the Lady Rams’ win over the Lady Hawks on Wednesday, there is now the potential that the two teams will have to play a playoff game to determine a district regular season champion. But here are the possible scenarios to come from that, as VV plays host to Atrisco, while Rio Rancho plays rival Cleveland.

 

Volcano Vista: Win / Rio Rancho: Win

The Hawks and Rams will be named District 1 co-champions, and play a playoff game

Volcano Vista: Win / Rio Rancho: Loss

The Hawks will become the outright District 1 champions

Volcano Vista: Loss / Rio Rancho: Win

The Rams will become the outright District 1 champions

Volcano Vista: Loss / Rio Rancho: Loss

The two will still be tied, and will still become District 1 co-champions, playing that playoff game

 

Cibola, Atrisco Heritage, and Cleveland are all out of the race for the top spot.

 

Girls 5A District 2 Standings:

  1. Piedra Vista (22-3, 6-1 in District)
  2. West Mesa (21-2, 5-2 in District)
  3. Farmington (20-6, 4-3 in District)
  4. La Cueva (18-5, 3-4 in District)
  5. Eldorado (9-15, 0-8 in District)

 

Scenarios for District 2:

First thing to note is that with no wins in district play, Eldorado has been eliminated from district contention.

Coming up on Friday, West Mesa will take on La Cueva, while Piedra Vista and Farmington will battle in their rivalry game. Here are all the scenarios that could play out from the action.

 

Piedra Vista: Win / West Mesa: Win

Piedra Vista will be named the outright District 2 champions, all standings remain the same

Piedra Vista: Win / West Mesa: Loss

Piedra Vista will be named the outright District 2 champions. With this scenario, Farmington and La Cueva will tie for third place, with La Cueva winning the tie from head-to-head record.

Piedra Vista: Loss / West Mesa: Win

Piedra Vista and West Mesa will be tied in district record, and will become regular season co-champions, playing a playoff game. Other standings remain the same

Piedra Vista: Loss / West Mesa: Loss

Piedra Vista remains outright District 2 champions, while West Mesa and Farmington tie for second place. Because of head-to-head, West Mesa maintains second place.

 

Girls 5A District 3 Standings:

  1. Mayfield (20-5, 11-0 in District)
  2. Alamogordo (18-7, 7-4 in District)
  3. Centennial (13-12, 6-5 in District)
  4. Onate (14-12, 6-6 in District)
  5. Deming (16-9, 5-6 in District)
  6. Las Cruces (10-15, 4-7 in District)
  7. Gadsden (1-22, 0-11 in District)

 

Scenarios for District 3:

There’s no question about it, the Mayfield Trojans have locked in as the outright District 3/5A regular season champions with what could be a perfect 12-0 district record should they beat Las Cruces on Friday night. There’s still some basketball to be played to determine other placing, with Deming facing Alamogordo, and Gadsden facing Centennial. The scenarios are as follows:

 

Mayfield: Win / Alamogordo: Win / Centennial: Win

All standings remain the same

Mayfield: Win / Alamogordo: Win / Centennial: Loss

Centennial will tie with Onate for third place, with Centennial maintaining third place due to point differential in head-to-head competition

Mayfield: Win / Alamogordo: Loss / Centennial: Win

Alamogordo and Centennial will tie for second place, while Onate and Deming will tie for fourth place. Centennial wins tiebreaker due to point differential in head-to-head, while Onate wins the tiebreaker with Deming in head-to-head

Mayfield: Win / Alamogordo: Loss / Centennial: Loss

Centennial and Onate tie for third place, with Centennial winning the tiebreaker

Mayfield: Loss / Alamogordo: Win / Centennial: Win

Las Cruces and Deming will tie for fifth place, with Las Cruces winning the tiebreaker because of point differential in the head-to-head

Mayfield: Loss / Alamogordo: Win / Centennial: Loss

Las Cruces and Deming will tie for fifth place, while Centennial and Onate will tie for third place. Las Cruces wins their tiebreaker, while Centennial wins their tiebreaker

Mayfield: Loss / Alamogordo: Loss / Centennial: Loss

Centennial, Onate, and Deming will be locked in a three-way tie, with the placing being in the order of Centennial in third place, Onate in fourth place and then Deming in fifth place.

 

Girls 5A District 4 Standings:

  1. Hobbs (24-1, 5-0 in District)
  2. Carlsbad (22-3, 4-1 in District)
  3. Clovis (8-17, 1-4 in District)
  4. Roswell (6-18, 0-5 in District)

 

Scenarios for District 4:

Before getting into the scenarios, it is noteworthy that Clovis and Roswell are not in contention for the District 4 title.

With Hobbs looking to lock in the top spot in District 4, while also looking for the top spot in the state tournament, they still have one more game to go in order to do that. Carlsbad and Hobbs square off, along with Clovis taking on Roswell.

The scenarios for this district are pretty simple. If Hobbs wins, they will secure the outright District 4 title, but if Hobbs loses, they will have to play Carlsbad a second time to determine a district tournament one-seed.

 

Girls 5A District 5 Standings:

  1. Sandia (17-6, 9-0 in District)
  2. Albuquerque High (9-14, 6-3 in District)
  3. Manzano (11-12, 5-4 in District)
  4. Santa Fe (11-15, 5-5 in District)
  5. Capital (9-16, 3-7 in District)
  6. Rio Grande (0-23, 0-8 in District)

 

Scenarios for District 5:

Because of the snow day that came about on Tuesday, District 5 was forced to play games both on Thursday and on Saturday, which makes for what the standings currently are heading into Saturday’s games. Sandia has officially secured the District 5 championship, but the placers for the rest of the district still need to be determined. With Sandia taking on Rio Grande, and Manzano taking on Albuquerque High, here’s how things will go down. The only impact that would make a difference in the district standings is if Manzano beats Albuquerque High. The two will then be tied for second, making Manzano winner of the tiebreaker.