Blog

Does anybody else feel a perfect storm coming against the Lobos?

First, we've seen them play closer-than-expected games against mediocre (or worse) TCU, Colorado State and Air Force in recent weeks. This isn't an indictment of UNM, but more of a sign that opponents are playing up, hoping to knock off a top 10 team that's getting loads of national exposure (more coming soon).

That is going to continue for the rest of the season, unless the Lobos go very deep into the NCAA Tournament. UNM is a prime target.

Second, UNM has played with more tension than usual, and that typically comes when the Lobos can sniff accomplishment. Last night UNM coach Steve Alford said his Lobos were tight because they wanted to play well for senior Roman Martinez and the adoring fans.

The Mountain West Conference tournament title is certainly another jewel for this season -- to Alford it's worth $25,000 -- but I'm going to look past this for a moment, and on to the NCAA Tournament.

Last night when he addressed the fans, Alford said that this team wants to make history. Martinez said that too, during his interview with the media. Alford mentioned that part of making history at UNM is getting past the second round of the NCAA Tournament, something no Lobos team has done.

Put all that together. If UNM is seeded No. 2, 3 or 4 in the NCAAs, it's probably going to play against a quality, if not talented team from a small conference in Round 1. That team will have little to no pressure (just like TCU, CSU and Air Force) and have great motivation to topple the mighty Lobos. Unlike those three MWC schools, this team probably will know how to win and finish games.

Accordingy, UNM will be tight. The Lobos will know they are on the verge of history. They will want to play well for each other and their fans. And for history.

If UNM gets past that team (which it should) then everything ratchets up a notch. The Lobos' opponent will be better. The target will still be prominent on their backs. And UNM will feel even greater pressure because now the Sweet 16 berth is right in front of them.

If the Lobos get into the Sweet 16 that pressure will vanish. Beyond that, who knows? There is enough parity this year that UNM could get to the Final Four (yes, I wrote that). But those first two games will be tough, maybe more difficult for them than most high seeds.

And the Lobos better hope they don't get the cover of Sports Illustrated when that story comes out. We know all about that jinx.

Now some more positive info ...

Since 2005 there have been seven teams from a non-Big Six league that have been seeded No. 2-4, like the Lobos should be.

Six of those teams advanced to at least the Sweet 16 (one went to the Elite Eight).